Full version of the CB2020 document is in PDF form below:
Click here to download the CB2020 Report An analysis of Existing Residential Development and Residential Build out Potential in the Upper East River Valley.
January 10, 2001
Introduction
CB2020 has been working for 2 years to determine the carrying capacity of the East River Valley. The CB2020 committee includes representatives from: CBMR, HCCA, RMBL, US Forest Service, Gunnison County, Town of Crested Butte, Town of Mt. Crested Butte, City of Gunnison, the ranching community and the development community.
Together, we have created the "East River Valley Planning Model," a complex model which describes the East River Valley at full build-out, from Round Mountain to Schofield Pass. The model is able to estimate population, traffic, water needs, sales taxes, employment and other results of development. We think it will help our community to make adjustments, if it so desires, – and tough decisions - in order to maintain a healthy economy and a high quality of life for our residents and visitors.
This report provides a summary of the Planning Model, showing existing residential development and residential build out potential in the Upper East River Valley (the Valley). The geographic scope of the study is the portion of the Upper East River Valley watershed that is seasonally accessible, north of Round Mountain, including Mt. Crested Butte, Crested Butte, Crested Butte South, Gothic, Irwin and other subdivisions and private developable lands in the Valley but excluding mining claims.After summarizing the data presented, the Introduction presents some of the major conclusions of the report.
Part 1 of the report summarizes existing development in the Valley, as of December 31, 1999.
Table 1 A presents the total number of existing units in each Town and the County, in the Valley.
Table 1 B presents the existing number of units by type (eg. single family, multi-family).
Table 1 C presents the existing number of units by occupancy type (eg. local, second home, or visitor accommodation).
Table 1 D presents the growth in building permit valuation over the last 10 years.
Part 2 of the report summarizes the additional residential units that have been approved but have not yet been built, and it presents additional residential development potential that has been proposed but has not yet been approved by the County or the one of the two towns.
Part 3 of the report summarizes total potential units at build out, based on the sum of existing units and all additional development potential.
Part 4 compares the existing number of residential units today, with the number of units at build out.
Only residential development is assessed in this report. Non-residential development (commercial and industrial) is not included at this time. While the numbers contained in this report are believed to be the best available given existing sources, it should be remembered that the data are subject to limitations. Acknowledged limitations are listed at the end of the report. At this time, we have not tried to determine the amount of affordable housing needed or if the units proposed will provide that use.
Some Major Conclusions
The data compiled through this analysis provides a starting point for understanding how the Upper East River Valley may change as it reaches build out. If the Approved units and the units listed as Proposed and Approved in this analysis are built, we expect the following:
The number of units and people in the upper East River Valley will increase substantially.
Total housing/lodging units in the valley could almost triple, increasing from 3,857 units today to 10,217 units at build out (a 165 percent change).
The nature of the population will change.
Local resident units are anticipated to decline somewhat on a proportional basis. The largest shift in the occupancy mix of units will likely be an increase in the proportion of second homes (from 23% today to 31% at build out). The proportion of visitor accommodation units will decrease about 9% (from 41% today to 35% at build out).
The pace of development in the Upper East River Valley is increasing and is expected to be faster than in the past.
Crested Butte, Mt. Crested Butte and the unincorporated County north of Round Mountain are already witnessing much more construction than in the past, as described in Table 1D.
A little over half of the new development could occur in Mt. Crested Butte (57 percent), with 7.5 percent occurring in Crested Butte and 35 percent occurring in unincorporated areas.
On a percentage share basis, an increased percentage of units will be located in Mt. Crested Butte and in unincorporated areas and a decreased percentage will be located in Crested Butte.